The original version of the DOE proposal for revised energy efficiencies for distribution transformers, initiated in 2023, would have forced most new distribution transformers to be manufactured with amorphous metal cores and not GOES cores. The final version of the DOE transformer efficiency standard allows predominantly GOES cores to be used. This standard will be fully implemented by 2029. However, we note that, under the current administration, DOE has circulated and received responses for a modification (softening) of the new standards. Our understanding (which is colloquial) is that amorphous cores currently maintain between 7% and 10% of the new distribution transformer production.

While there has been prior talk of introduction of a further improvement in transformer energy efficiency during the period 2026-2030, latest action by the DOE suggests that this will not happen until at least 2031-2035, or possibly beyond.

In our opinion, the more important consideration is the introduction of Solid State Transformers (SSTs), where the technology is ideally suited to use in distribution and slightly larger transformers. Our opinion is that the introduction of SSTs will be similar to and likely follow similar paths to the introduction of electric vehicles (EV’s) in that:

• The technology has efficiency advantages;
• Costs of production are currently higher but projected to decrease;
• There’s an inbuilt resistance to change due to established and proven engineering designs;
• Current commentary that this is not “IF” but “WHEN” such a change is likely and at what rate of adoption;
• There may need to be external incentives, such as government support or a change in energy efficiency standards to promote adoption of the new technology.